Is our Bull of KLSE is dying?
Is our Bull of KLSE is dying?
My last post i have told about the basic of KLSE, and now for the real thing that i wanted to write, the dying of the bull of our KLSE
We have seen the Maginificent Bear Force/ Downtrend Force all over the world from January 2008 tilll February 2009. They even call it “The Greater Depression” or “The Great Depression 2”. (The Great Depression occurs in 1929-1930).
Then in March 2009 this year, a remarkable recovery, almost like a miracle, if you do read many forums and article discussing it, The Bull came back to fight The Big Bear that has hit us in the year of 2008. The push was strong, and fast, it was a fast Bull indeed. In some country, the Bull is big, and some country it is small.
For us, The Bull was big, has been pushing prices of stocks up from March 2009 till today. Several time the Bear try to fight off the Bull but failed. In technical term, KLSE overcame the strong psychological support at 1000 point, and break multiple resistance up till now.
Our KLSE recovery can be seen as the reaction to the recovery of other big market in the world such as China & US, plus many action done by our prime minister Najib, including the changing of KLCI from 100 companies to 30 companies, now called FBM KLCI. Other measures also might also had help this recovery.
If you see from the chart, you can see the trend of the prices going up in 2007, down all the way in 2008, going sideways from end of 2008 and early 2009, then from March 2009 until today is going up.
It already recovers half of the bear run we suffered, actually more than half, about 400 recovery out of 700 pulled down last year.
BUT, IS THE BULL NOW DYING?
then analyzing more detail on the current bull run by looking the at the chart
1) The gradient of Uptrend slope is getting lesser and lesser shown by the multiple arrow at the topmost of the picture
2) The decresing gradient of Uptrend is not significant if the Volume is still high, The volume as seen above by the long Arrow pointing downward showing the volume contracting slowly going below the Volume Moving Average of 40 days. This is the most significant point as investors seems more and more afraid to enter position, and most of everyone waiting to sell and cashing in the profit they are making.
3) If you can see at the topmost dotted line, the prices already breaking resistance at 1160, and now testing the psychological level of 1200, this could be an important sign of reversal, since breaking this resistance prove hard shown by the downsloping of the price
4) The MACD line is now crossing below the red signal line, for the second time, the first time the crossing occur shown by the first fat arrow pointing upward, coincides with large volume unusual for the market, thus the bull force pushing it upward again, but this time around, with low volume, with 2 weeks red histogram of MACD, this is not going to be good for this time
5) RSI has shown the market has lasted so long on the Overbought region, since the uptrend and slightly dip down but up again until now, this wont last long, as more and more people and waiting to cash their profit.
6) lastly, the sign that everyone is so afraid of came and it comes with a Bang! :
THIS CHART IS AS OF TODAY: 17/08/09.
THE EVENING SHOOTING STAR or simply The Shooting Star.
7) What makes it significant is that the shooting star/inverted hammer itself is having such a long tail upward, then followed by today on 17/08/2009, full bodied black candle that came following the shooting star is breaking through 10 days moving average with it’s standard deviation of 2.0 in a single day, touching the 20days moving average (not shown here).
8) It also coincides with persistent low volume, today, just at the average of VMA of 40days. MACD line showing clear crossing down the signal line, with longer red histogram.
9) My oh my, the RSI suddenly went down sharply slightly crossing 50%.
The Bull run lasted that long because of positive mood of recovery wanted by investors, extended run is seen because majority of investors holding their position firmly, being GREED to sell it early, and slowly give away their shares, while buyers are geting more FEAR in entering the market and buying the shares, Thus we get to a peak point/turning point like this!
My advice is: If you have anything at all, Sell! If you wanted to go in the market, WAIT!
Last but not least, all my thought remained my thought only, i may be completely wrong, or i might be right, time will tell. So anyone reading this with an intent on the Market, please act on your own free will, just use my thought as an external advice only
THE BIG BEAR CHASING THE SMALL BULL AWAY!
That’s all, thank you! any comments are appreciated!
so i’m telling the bear of klse who has been sleeping for 5 months now,
WELCOME HOME BIG BEAR!!!!
Disclaimer : There is risk in trading or investing in the stock market. The views expressed in this presentation/material accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s). Investors/Trader are advised to make their own independent assessment of the contents of this presentation/material, should not treat such content as advice relating to legal, accounting, taxation, technical or investment matters and should consult their own professional investment advisers.